INTC Intel Analysis March 2016 (W,M,Q)
Created on Monday, 21 March 2016 11:01
Written by Austin Galt
Intel Corp (INTC) is engaged in the design and manufacture of digital technology platforms while it also develops and sells software and services focused on security and technology integration. It is listed on the NASDAQ with a market capitalisation of around $155billion. Price last traded at $32.34.
Let’s begin the analysis with the quarterly chart.
INTC QUARTERLY CHART
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the 2000 high to 2002 low. It shows the 2007 high at resistance from the 76.4% angle which led to new price lows in 2009 at $12.05. Price has recently traded above the 88.6% angle and looks to be finding support there as it consolidates. Once this consolidation is complete I am looking for a strong move higher.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the whole bull market and the corrections looks complete after the 2009 low clipped the 88.6% level.
The Bollinger Bands show price finding support at the middle band and I am now looking for a big move higher that hugs the upper band.
The RSI is currently trending down but still in positive territory while the MACD indicator is in oscillation mode. Both these indicators look to be in a holding pattern waiting on orders from price. However, they looks stronger than they do weak so I favour price will launch higher.
INTC MONTHLY CHART
The green highlighted circle shows the area whereby price launched higher parabolic style. Price often returns to these exact areas when correcting and that has already occurred.
The Bollinger Bands show the recent low trading well below the lower band which is commonly found at solid lows. Price subsequently tested this lower band before bouncing back up to where it is now being around the middle band. I suspect there is one final test of the lower band to come. Time will tell.
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the February 2009 low to 2012 high and this shows some nice price symmetry. The low after the 2012 high was at support from the 61.8% angle and so too was the recent low of $24.87 set in August 2015. It would not surprise to see price give this 61.8% angle another test.
The RSI is just back into positive territory while the MACD indicator is bearish but looking like it is just going through the motions before the next major move.
Now let’s go to the weekly chart to try and determine where the next good buying opportunity might be.
INTC WEEKLY CHART
We can see a higher high is in place after price busted above the previous swing high denoted by the horizontal line.
Price has traded down from the higher high and I believe an ABC corrective pattern is playing out. Wave B should be nearly complete and then I favour a move down to put in a wave C low which should be somewhere below the wave A low at $27.68. I have not discounted the possibility that wave C truncates and puts in a higher low.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up and I favour the wave C low to be down at least at the 76.4% level which stands at $27.40. The 88.6% level at $26.09 is also worth consideration. If wave C truncates then I would be looking at the 50% and 61.8% levels which are $30.23 and $28.97 respectively.
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan which shows the wave A low around support from the 76.4% angle and if the wave C truncates then I would be looking for this angle to provide support once again. If price trades below the wave A low then I would be looking for the wave C low to be around support from the 88.6% angle and it is this scenario which I currently favour.
The RSI is currently strong while the MACD indicator is bullish but both indicators appear to be just starting to curl over.
Summing up, I am very bullish and expect a solid buying opportunity to present itself in the near future.
Disclosure – I have no financial interest in INTC.