ASX200 Breaks Support (D)

I’ve been umming and ahhing a bit lately with this index but with price breaking a support level yesterday I am back to believing a final top is in place. 
Let’s quickly check out to the daily chart.


We can see price broke below the support level denoted by the horizontal line at 5828. That means I am back to favouring a top in place.
The RSI is in oversold territory so a rally looks likely. This should be a bear rally.
How high do I expect this bear rally to trade?
I generally like to see a deep retracement at the start of bear trends. I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent move down and am targeting the 76.4% level at 5951 to bring in the secondary high.
A high up there could be considered a failed fourth attempt at resistance which is very bearish.
The PSAR indicator has a bearish bias with the dots above price and price should not take out that resistance.
The trading since the first high in the triple top formation looks like accumulation and distribution is going on. That is probably nearly done and a big move beckons. For mine, the direction will be down.


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