USDJPY Analysis January 2016 (D,M)
Created on Friday, 01 January 2016 01:09
Written by Austin Galt
The 2015 high at 125.85 played out as expected we now have a bear trend playing out. Let’s review the daily and monthly charts.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
The first rally in a new bear trend often makes a deep retracement and once again that has been the case here. I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from high to low and we can see price finding resistance right around the 76.4% level before turning back down.
This recent high was a very bearish quadruple top formation and is denoted by the numbers 1 to 4.
The fourth high also showed a very bearish outside reversal candle with the move down after the high being very impulsive.
The bearish Fibonacci Fan shows the 88.6% angle providing solid resistance and price is now back down around support from the 76.4% angle. I expect this support to give way shortly and this is quite a bit of space down to the next support being the 61.8% angle.
The moving averages with time periods of 100 (red) and 200 (back) have recently made a bearish crossover.
The RSI is in oversold territory so a little bear rally from here would not surprise.
The MACD indicator is bearish and generally trending down.
USDJPY MONTHLY CHART
The RSI showed a triple bearish divergence at the high and a significant move down often follows and that is my expectation here.
The MACD indicator is bearish and I expect price to trade further down in line with this.
The PSAR indicator is bearish with the dots above price.
The Bollinger Bands show price is currently around the middle band and I expect price will head down to the lower band and push into it.
The Fibonacci Fan shows the high was right at resistance from the 23.6% angle. Price has found support at the 38.2% angle over recent months but it looks like that support is just about to give way.
The horizontal line denotes the January 2014 high at 105.73. Old tops often act as support in the future and I expect that to be the case here. Should price trade below this level I think it will only be marginal with support coming in and sending price back up.
Summing up, the expectation has been that we are currently in a bear trend and I see no reason to alter that view.