EURUSD Update October 2015 (W)

Let’s review the EURUSD weekly chart.


The Bollinger Bands show price bouncing up and down between the middle and upper band for many weeks now with price having gone nowhere. This choppiness is clearly corrective behaviour and I expect this to continue albeit with a little bit more chop.
Price looks to have found resistance at the upper Bollinger Band this week and I am now looking for price to head back down to the lower band.
The Stochastic indicator is going sideways doing nothing.
The MACD indicator remains bullish although it looks in need of a break.
There is the potential for a 5 point broadening top to form with the first three points already in place. If so, price is now headed down to put in a point 4 low which would need to be below the point 2 low of 1.0809. There is also a chance that price makes a higher low above the point 2 low. Then price could launch higher to put in the final point 5 high.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from 2014 high to 2015m low and the target for this bear rally high remains around the 61.8% level at 1.2644.
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan which shows price slowly overcoming the angles of this bearish fan. I suspect the final rally high will be up around resistance from the 88.6% angle. Let’s see.
So, a move down now looks on the cards before price heads back up to new rally highs. Once that final high is in place then the overall downtrend should resume.


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