AUDUSD Analysis February 2015 (W)

Let me start this analysis by stating the obvious. That is, my form on the Aussie dollar in recent times has been ordinary. And that’s being generous to myself! I continue to search for the elusive low that I think will be the prelude to a big bear market rally. So, with a grain of salt, let’s take a quick look using the weekly chart.


I have drawn two horizontal lines denoting previous swing lows. I like to see price breach previous swing lows before rallying. The first swing low is the May 2010 low and I thought price would turn back up after that breach. It hasn’t so the next swing low is the July 2009 low at 77.04c. I am now looking for price to trade slightly below this level before the belated rally takes place.
There looks to be a “three strikes and you’re out” low formation setting up as denoted by the numbers 1, 2 and 3.
The coming third and likely final low looks set to show triple bullish divergences on the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and Stochastic indicator. That would look comforting for the bulls.
And once the low is finally in place, a big bear market rally should take place and I can then hopefully find my rhythm again with this currency pair.


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