AUDNZD Update September 2016 (D)
Created on Thursday, 15 September 2016 09:04
Written by Austin Galt
As outlined in previous analysis, I am favouring a higher low to form and I suspect we could well have one in place as of yesterday at 1.0236. Let’s take a look using the daily chart.
AUDNZD DAILY CHART
This chart commences just before the April 2015 low at 1.0019 and saw price shortly thereafter surge higher up to 1.1616 in August 2015. I am viewing the price action since then as an ABC corrective formation with wave C now ending.
If this labelling is correct then this wave C low is also the wave 2 low with the impulsive wave 3 set to commence.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up and this wave C low is just above the 88.6% level so a deep retracement which is consistent with the first corrections in a new bull market.
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the low to wave B high which shows some nice symmetry. We can see price recently bobbing up and won between support from the 76.4% angle and resistance from the 61.8% angle. Price subsequently broke down and is now right at support from the 88.6% angle. I favour this support to hold and see the bull trend resume.
The RSI has been in oversold territory with bullish divergences forming.
The MACD indicator is still bearish but has also formed bullish divergences.
So, we have the potential for a major higher low to form here. I strong move lower now would likely mean price is headed to record lows. As it stands currently, I am favouring the higher low.