AUDNZD Analysis April 2016 (D)
Created on Friday, 01 April 2016 01:52
Written by Austin Galt
The AUDNZD has rallied as expected and laid out in previous analysis. Price is now right in the zone for an expected lower high so let’s briefly review the daily chart.
AUDNZD DAILY CHART
There looks to be a “three strikes and you’re out” topping formation in place denoted by the numbers 1, 2 and 3. While this generally leads to a significant move lower (which is arguably has), on occasions there is one final surge higher to effectively make four strike highs. That is what I suspect will occur here.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from August 2015 high to October 2015 low. The expectation was for the lower high to be at least up at the 76.4% level which stands at 1.1347. So far, price has fallen just short only be able to reach 1.1337. I favour one final surge hits and possibly marginally exceeds the 76.4% level.
The Fibonacci Fan shows the 76.4% angle providing resistance at the recent high and if one last surge is to be seen then this angle should once again be formidable resistance.
The Bollinger Bands show price is back at the lower band and I favour one last last at the upper band.
The RSI shows a triple bearish divergence at the recent high which often leads to a significant decline. Any new rally high now would likely still set up multiple bearish divergences.
The MACD is bearish and a new price high would likely set up a bearish divergence on this indicator.
Summing up, I believe a major secondary high is at hand and the downtrend is set to resume imminently.