Sugar False Break Low (D)

I am expecting a rally in the sugar price as outlined in my recent article, Sugar Price To Sweeten Up. Well, it looks like price may finally be putting in a low which should lead to this expected rally.
Let’s check out the situation using the daily chart.


The low occurred last week at $12.57 on Friday 13th. (That date sounds familiar). I have drawn a horizontal line at the previous swing low set a couple days before that and this new low reeks of a false break low set up.
The Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR) indicator shows a bearish bias but I suspect this last move down is a fake out move. Certainly, price trading back up and busting the dots on the upside would look very bullish now.
The Bollinger Bands show the low traded a bit below the lower band which is a common feature found at solid lows.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and Stochastic indicator are both showing a triple bullish divergence at this last low. Nice.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator looks to be threatening a bullish crossover.
The Momentum indicator shows the downtrend momentum has run its course and is now starting to trend up.
Summing up, I believe conditions are now very suitable for a significant price rally.


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