Silver Update April 2015 (D)
Created on Friday, 24 April 2015 02:01
Written by Austin Galt
Silver is already back to my target for low but I think there is lower to go. Let’s take a quick look using the daily chart.
SILVER DAILY CHART
The target given in previous analysis was for price to come back to around US$15.70. Yesterday price hit US$15.73 and while a case can be made for a rally up from here I personally think there is still lower to go.
The PSAR indicator has a bearish bias with the dots above price.
The RSI is in oversold territory but there is still plenty of room to go lower and still set up a bullish divergence which is the scenario I favour.
The MACD is trending down with a bearish bias. Of course a big move up from here would change that picture but until that happens I prefer to have a bearish bias myself.
There looks to be a 5 point broadening low in play denoted by the number 1 to 5. That would require the point 5 low to be below the point 3 low which stands at US$15.27.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from December 2014 low to January 2015 high and while the recent low was right around the 76.4% level, I now favour the final low to be closer to the 88.6% level at US$14.89.
Also, while not shown, there is monthly PSAR support at US$14.31 this month while next month it will be around US$14.40 and I favour a more solid test of that support.
After the coming expected low, price should stage a big rally higher if my analysis is correct.