Oil Update July 2015 (D)

Let’s review the oil price using the daily chart.


Oil has traded lower than previously outlined but the expectation of higher prices this year remains unchanged.
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from low. Price now looks to be zeroing in on the 61.8% level which stands at $49.88 and I favour price clipping this level before turning back up.
The higher horizontal line denotes the February 2015 high at $54.24 and price trading below that level means price is giving that support level a thorough test.
The lower horizontal line denotes the April 2015 low at $47.05 and breaking below there would likely mean price is headed back to test the low now. This is not my expectation. I expect a test of this year’s low next year.
The Bollinger Bands show price has moved away from the lower band but I suspect price will try and get back to that lower band one last time. The lower band currently stands at $47.95 which may be a touch too far.
The RSI looks set to show a bullish divergence on the coming low while the MACD indicator is still bearish with the red line above the blue line signifying lower prices are likely.
Once the coming low is in place I expect a move to new rally highs. 


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