30 Year US T-Bond Analysis June 2017 (W,W)

Let’s review the charts of the 30 Year US T-Bonds as there are a couple of scenarios I am looking at going forward from here. Let’s begin with the big picture quarterly chart.
 

30 YEAR US T-BONDS QUARTERLY CHART 

 
We can see the “three strikes and you’re out” top formation in place. I favour this has ended the 35 year bull market. A final fourth strike high is certainly not out of the question though.
 
The Bollinger bands show price is back at the middle band and I expect support to kick in here and send price back up to test the high. The only question I have is will it be a marginal false break high or a secondary high. I currently favour the latter although my mind is open to both possibilities.
 
The Fibonacci Fan shows the high clipped the 61.8% angle and I do favour that to be the final high. However, I suspect price will get back up to the 61.8% angle before turning back down.
 
The RSI shows five bearish divergences in place. Is a sixth bearish divergence possible? Sure.
 
The MACD indicator showed a new high together with the all time price high. Just as the 1981 all time low was accompanied by a new low.
 

30 YEAR US T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART 

 
Now, there is the potential for a 5 point broadening top to form as the recent lower low could well be a point 4 low only. That is not my expectation but it is worth keeping in mind. Instead, I favour a deep retracement which so often happens with the first bear rally in a new bear market.
 
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down and I am targeting price to rally up to at least the 76.4% level at 169.93. The 88.6% level at 173.76 is also an area to focus on.
 
I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan and I favour the major secondary high to form around the 88.6% angle. That looks to intersect the 76.4% level towards the end of 2017 so that is some potential timing.
 
The RSI is now trending back up making lower lows and lower highs as is the MACD indicator.
 
 

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Disclaimer

All information contained in this website is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors. Put simply, it is JUST MY OPINION.

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